dognovel Chapter 84 You Must Invest in Colt
Chapter 84 You Must Invest in Colt
Upon hearing Mr. Morgan's rebuke, the elderly man with gray hair hurriedly got up from his chair and reached for the stack of documents that had been tossed on the desk.
Mr. Morgan simply puffed out cigar smoke silently, letting the old man retrieve the documents.
The old man took the stack of documents, tremblingly pulled a monocle from his pocket, and began to carefully peruse the documents he had presented.
But clearly, he didn't immediately find the answer he was looking for. After searching carefully, the old man pointed to a certain piece of data on one of the pages as a marker, straightened up, and said to Mr. Morgan,
"Dear Mr. John Pierpont Morgan, the St. Paul Railway is honored to have your patronage. On behalf of the entire Board of Directors, I would like to express our sincere gratitude to you..."
Mr. Morgan chuckled and said calmly, "Two minutes left!"
The old gentleman was startled and quickly shortened his opening remarks, beginning to give a detailed report on the São Paulo Railway's profitability over the previous ten years, as well as its profit margins and future profit expectations, based on the data in the stack of documents. Following Mr. Morgan's instructions, the old man had focused his presentation on the possibility of profitability over the next five years, drawing on both objective data and his subjective judgment as a manager regarding future profit trends.
Even Larry, sitting outside the library, felt that the old man's answer was already very detailed...
But when the three minutes were up, Mr. Morgan decisively pressed the bell on the table.
This is the farewell bell.
The black-haired secretary, who had somehow appeared behind Mr. Morgan, immediately stepped forward, a warm smile on her face, and took the old man's arm, comforting him as she saw him off from the library.
The old gentleman kept looking back as he walked. When he reached the central hall of the library, he couldn't help but stop and turn to Mr. Morgan, pleading, "Sir, please give me another chance. I will answer any questions you may have about the company. Just one chance!!"
But Mr. Morgan did not speak; his face was hidden behind the shadow of the desk lamp, and no one could see his expression.
The old man stood there stunned for 30 seconds, receiving no response, before dejectedly leaving the library after being persuaded by his black-haired secretary.
Then there was a full five minutes of silence. No one spoke. Mr. Morgan seemed to be enjoying the pleasure of appreciating the cigars, forgetting the mundane world.
Five minutes later, the black-haired secretary returned. He adjusted his gold-rimmed glasses and said in a pleasant tone, "Mr. Morgan, next up is Larry Livingston from Paine Weber Securities. He will bring basic financial information about Colt Corporation."
Larry's heart tightened, thinking that it was his turn to step in. Thinking about facing Mr. Morgan's questioning, Larry's breathing became rapid.
Larry straightened up, carrying his suitcase.
Mr. Morgan didn't speak, but Larry could almost feel from the living room, which was a dozen meters away, that Mr. Morgan's eyes, hidden in the shadow of the lamp, were coldly scanning him.
"Bring him in!" Morgan ordered.
Upon hearing this, Larry almost immediately wanted to take a step, but he held back and waited for the black-haired secretary to come to his side and formally inform him that Mr. Morgan had summoned him before Larry calmly followed the secretary into the library.
Larry tried his best to walk steadily and keep his eyes straight ahead, but even so, he noticed out of the corner of his eye that Mr. Coster was looking him over.
Larry walked to the chair in front of Mr. Morgan's desk, gave him a confident smile, and calmly said,
"Mr. Morgan, it is a great honor to meet you. I know you dislike pointless chatter, so I will be frank: the Paine Weber Company's research indicates that Colt Company is a worthwhile investment."
As he spoke, Larry had already taken the financial documents from the small suitcase and handed them over with both hands.
Larry's straightforward opening remarks surprised the secretary and Mr. Morgan's senior partners. They quickly exchanged glances, but Mr. Morgan did not speak. Instead, he put his cigar in his left hand, straightened up, and took the documents that Larry handed him.
Mr. Morgan leaned forward, exposed to the glow of the lamp, and Larry finally saw clearly for the first time the face of this unprecedented and unparalleled banker in American financial history.
Mr. Morgan sported his signature walrus beard and had sharp, eagle-like eyes. He was never without his cigar, and the second joints of his index and middle fingers were stained a deep yellow from years of cigar smoke. Even when he took Larry's documents, he didn't look at the documents but stared directly into Larry's eyes with a penetrating gaze that seemed to see right through him.
"Sit down, Mr. Livingston," Mr. Morgan said simply, taking the documents.
Larry took a deep breath and, with all his might, sat down in the chair the old man had just sat in.
Mr. Morgan placed the cigar in his left hand, while his other hand swiftly but attentively scanned the documents Larry had handed him. After about a minute and a half, Morgan scoffed, tossed the documents onto the table, and said coldly, "The debt ratio on page seven is wrong. Redo it!"
Larry's heart skipped a beat, but he maintained a confident smile on his face.
Mr. Morgan looked past Larry and at Mr. Coster sitting next to him.
"Charles, you've spoken to their manager. What are your thoughts?"
Mr. Koster did not stand up, but respectfully turned around and said to Mr. Morgan with a serious expression,
"Mrs. Elizabeth Colt, Colt's widow, has no intention of selling the company; she only wants to raise funds for a new handgun project. If they're not willing to sell, then I don't think this deal is worth anything!"
Next, Mr. Koster gave Mr. Morgan a brief but accurate report on the details of the closed-door meeting.
The gist of the message is that Mr. Coster conveyed Mr. Morgan's desire to acquire Colt, but Mr. Andrew, the executive of Colt and Mrs. Colt's plenipotentiary representative, clearly refused to sell the company. Instead, he suggested that Morgan Bank either purchase Colt's newly issued corporate bonds or participate in Colt's new share issuance to become one of Colt's shareholders.
But then Mr. Koster pointed out that, based on Colt's current profitability, the company was not even comparable to Winchester, Remington, or Smith & Wesson, let alone the highly profitable steel and railroad companies.
Because Colt is so large, although it holds more than half of the market share in each segment of the firearms market, its overall profit margin is actually 4 percentage points lower than that of the other three companies.
In short, Mr. Koster made it clear that this company was not worth investing in, whether it was buying or selling bonds or subscribing to shares.
Mr. Morgan nodded slightly, turned to look directly at Larry, and frowned slightly as he spoke.
"You heard that? Okay, for your over-the-top confidence, I'll give you three minutes to tell me why you think Colt is a worthwhile investment. Kid, let me give you a heads-up, I was born in Hartford, and I know everything that goes on there."
At this moment, Larry's heart was pounding, and sweat was involuntarily seeping from his forehead, gathering into beads and slowly trickling down his temples.
Larry maintained his smile, looking directly into Mr. Morgan's eyes without flinching, and said with a smile,
"From 1860 to 1861, on the eve of the American Civil War, Colt worked overtime to produce weapons for the Southern states, making a fortune; but after the Civil War officially began, Colt cut off orders from the Confederate States of America and only supplied weapons to the Union Army, which to some extent affected the course of the war."
Mr. Morgan frowned slightly after listening, thinking that Larry was going to emphasize the importance of the weapons company.
But Larry's next words took Mr. Morgan by surprise.
In Jules Verne's novel *The Mysterious Island*, the journalist Giddings Speyer, in his quest for an exclusive story, after publishing his own, orders the telegraph office to continue sending the entire Bible to prevent his competitors from using the telegraph lines. This monopolizes telegraph resources and prevents others from transmitting information in a timely manner…
Even someone as astute as Morgan couldn't understand what Larry was saying in his seemingly random sentences, although everyone could tell that Larry's words contained some kind of reference.
After Larry finished speaking, he smiled again and said, "You are someone I greatly admire. I made a small discovery while reading your biography. In 1862, you learned in advance of the Union army's defeat on the battlefield and used this prior knowledge to hoard gold, causing a gold shortage in the market. After the price of gold rose, you sold your gold inventory and simultaneously cashed out on the London market. This operation allowed you to profit more than a million dollars 30 years ago and laid the foundation for your current position."
After saying that, Larry added, "Of course, that's what the biography says. I don't intend to verify it with you; I just think that such an operation is simply the work of God, absolutely amazing!"
Mr. Morgan nodded almost imperceptibly, but still kept one hand hovering over the table bell, and said in an icy tone, "You only have one minute left."
Larry didn't speak immediately. Instead, he paused, leaned forward, and concluded with a confident smile.
"Intelligence! Or rather, information, is what matters most to you. But intelligence doesn't necessarily require sending a lot of spies or agents to infiltrate London or Washington and obtaining it through wiretaps and pistols. The most valuable intelligence is often derived from publicly available information that has already been published."
"Admittedly, Colt may not make you a lot of money financially. But its value goes beyond mere profits; it lies in Colt's position as the premier arms supplier for the U.S. armed forces. If you become a shareholder, you can clearly see the destination of every batch of military equipment ordered, whether it's the Army, Navy, or Marine Corps, through the company's internal financial statements..."
"That way, even though the military in Washington is still concealing its intentions, you can analyze the destinations of these arms shipments to determine which country the US is most likely to wage war against. You can even analyze the timing of the war based on emergency arms orders. This kind of insider information is completely legal and far ahead of its time, allowing you to calmly gain a strategic advantage in the financial market turmoil caused by war. Regardless of the outcome of the war, you can freely and proactively position yourself in the financial markets..."
Larry's speech was very long, actually well over a minute, but Mr. Morgan's hand remained hovering over the table bell without striking it.
His face remained expressionless, his eyes still fixed on Larry, but it was as if a window had suddenly opened in his heart, revealing a new world he should have known about but had never noticed before…
Meanwhile, everyone in the private library, including Mr. Coster and the black-haired secretary, wore expressions of shock and deep thought. Then, they all turned their attention to Larry, as if seeing the blond boy for the first time.
After a long silence, Morgan forced a smile, removed his arm from the table bell, and said with a smile,
"Interesting, continue!"
Larry maintained his warm but unassuming smile and continued,
"What I'm saying is something you can reasonably deduce. I think you should not only take a stake in Colt, but also in Armstrong of the UK, Krupp of Germany, Herstal (FN) of Belgium, and Beretta of Italy. This way, your arms intelligence network will cover the whole of Europe and the United States. You only need to look at the annual reports that the companies provide to the board of directors to know where on earth a large-scale war might occur. This will play a crucial role in your subsequent financial planning."
Finally, Larry concluded, "Germany's rise is unstoppable, and the old European nations are powerless against it. Only war can solve the problem, just as they did with Napoleon. Sooner or later, Europe will be engulfed in war. Meanwhile, the United States, leveraging the unique geographical environment of the New World and the deep-rooted strength of the world's largest manufacturing nation, will seize the opportunity to rise. This is Wall Street's greatest opportunity for the future!"
After Larry finished speaking, the private library fell into a deathly silence. The crowd's eyes were filled with excitement and joy. They first looked at Larry's back, and then focused their attention on Mr. Morgan's face.
After a long while, Mr. Morgan suddenly laughed. He laughed loudly, and his body shook. The ash from the cigar in his hand fell off with his laughter.
Seeing Mr. Morgan smiling so happily, everyone else smiled too.
Larry appeared calm, but his heart was pounding. It wasn't until he saw Mr. Morgan's smiling face that his heart slowly calmed down.
This theory of open intelligence gathering was developed by top quantitative scientists from universities such as Yale and Oxford after two world wars. Larry presented it more than 50 years ahead of time, and its effectiveness was indeed extraordinary.
After Mr. Morgan finished laughing, a lingering smile still playing on his lips, he nodded at Larry and said,
"Alright, Mr. Livingston! I'm willing to pay a reasonable price for your advice; you can name any number you like."
Larry smiled, thinking to himself that this money wouldn't be easy to get. If he said too little, he'd make himself look cheap, and besides, a few hundred or a few thousand dollars wasn't a huge sum for Larry right now; if he said too much, the other party would think he was a greedy, cunning person who only knew how to play tricks...
So Larry quickly made up his mind, stood up, and said to Mr. Morgan with a solemn expression,
"Thank you for your generosity, Mr. Morgan. If I had to choose, I would prefer to have your business card so I can consult you anytime I encounter difficulties; also, I would like to ask for your autograph."
Upon hearing Larry's words, Mr. Morgan remained expressionless, but his heart skipped a beat. He thought that the blond youth would take the opportunity to ask him for hundreds or thousands of dollars, wealth that would instantly elevate this young man from Boston from his working class.
But to everyone's surprise, Larry's request was for a business card and an autograph.
Mr. Morgan narrowed his eyes and carefully examined the blond boy in front of him once more.
He then tossed the half-eaten cigar into the crystal ashtray, took a small, flat box from his suit jacket pocket, pulled out a thin, pure gold business card, and handed it to Larry.
"This is my business card, which has the phone numbers for my company and library, as well as the address of my private radio station. Of course, if you'd like, you can visit me anytime while I'm in New York; no appointment is needed, just tell the security guard downstairs."
Larry accepted Mr. Morgan's business card with both hands, expressed his heartfelt gratitude, and after carefully examining the card, he treasured it and put it away in his wallet.
"Also... McKinley!" Mr. Morgan turned and waved to his black-haired secretary, "Bring me my earliest copy of The Wealth of Nations."
The secretary looked slightly surprised, but still followed Mr. Morgan's instructions, took a beautifully packaged book box from the bookshelf not far away, gently placed it on Mr. Morgan's desk, and took out a particularly old-looking quarto-sized leather-bound hardcover book from it.
Morgan smiled, pondered for a moment, then took a gold pen from the table and wrote a sentence on the title page of the book.
"To our current friends and future rivals – JPM"
Mr. Morgan then personally placed the original copy of "The Wealth of Nations" into the box, closed the book box, and stood up to hand the book, which contained his signature, to Larry.
Larry quickly accepted it with both hands.
Mr. Morgan smiled and asked, "Could you please tell me your full name again?"
"Larry Livingston," Larry answered solemnly, straightening his posture.
Mr. Morgan smiled and nodded. "Okay, I'll remember that name."